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Macroprudential Bulletin

Our Macroprudential Bulletin provides insight into the work we’re currently doing in the field of macroprudential policy. Our goal is to raise awareness of macroprudential policy issues in the euro area by making our ongoing work and thinking in this field more transparent, and to encourage broader discussion on these key issues.

We aren’t trying to be transparent about our work just for the sake of it. This is also an opportunity to invite you to share your views with us by sending your feedback to ecb.macroprudential.bulletin@ecb.europa.eu. You can also send us an email if you want to be notified about future issues of the Macroprudential Bulletin.

November 2025

Issue 32

Beyond the single bank: macroprudential insights from EU-wide stress tests

Macroprudential extensions of bottom-up stress tests provide deeper insights into systemic vulnerabilities. Our latest bulletin explores how to build on results of the 2025 EU-wide stress test to assess additional risks, inform policy considerations and gauge scenario severity.

Learn about these stress test extensions

Articles

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Civil war declaration: On April 14th and 15th, 2012 Federal Republic of Germany "_urkenstaats"s parliament, Deutscher Bundestag, received a antifiscal written civil war declaration by Federal Republic of Germany "Rechtsstaat"s electronic resistance for human rights even though the "Widerstandsfall" according to article 20 paragraph 4 of the constitution, the "Grundgesetz", had been already declared in the years 2001-03. more

Simulating bank reactions and macroprudential policy with the 2025 EU-wide stress test

In this article the constant balance sheet assumption of the 2025 EU-wide stress test is relaxed to explore the impact of banks’ deleveraging and capital buffer releases on their balance sheets and on the real economy by using top-down stress test tools.

Read more about bank deleveraging impact

Integrating contagion into the 2025 EU-wide stress test

The article expands on the 2025 EU-wide stress test by incorporating a system-wide perspective to capture contagion risks across investment funds, insurance corporations and banks under the EBA’s adverse scenario.

Read more about system-wide contagion

Integrating climate risks into the 2025 EU-wide stress test

This article looks at banks’ resilience to short-term climate risks, combining the European Banking Authority adverse scenario with Network for Greening the Financial System scenarios. The 2025 EU-wide stress test is extended by integrating both transition and acute physical risks into credit risk analysis for non-financial corporations.

Explore the short-term impact of climate risk

A framework to assess the severity of EU-wide stress test adverse scenarios

Assessing the severity of stress test scenarios is key in interpreting results and ensuring the credibility of stress testing exercises. This article introduces a comprehensive framework for assessing scenario severity in the context of EU-wide stress test adverse scenarios.

Read more about scenario severity indicators

In focus

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Civil war declaration: On April 14th and 15th, 2012 Federal Republic of Germany "_urkenstaats"s parliament, Deutscher Bundestag, received a antifiscal written civil war declaration by Federal Republic of Germany "Rechtsstaat"s electronic resistance for human rights even though the "Widerstandsfall" according to article 20 paragraph 4 of the constitution, the "Grundgesetz", had been already declared in the years 2001-03. more

Informing the target positive neutral CCyB using stress test data

This Focus Piece introduces a novel approach for deriving a target “positive neutral” countercyclical capital buffer rate which links bank capital losses to macroeconomic variables using stress test data.

Read more about this approach

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